Labor market transitions in early career: how strong is the impact of fixed-term contracts ?

This paper provides a detailed description of the professional transitions in early career. We use the French survey Formation et Qualification Professionnelle, that gives detailed information on qualification and education, but also a calendar of professional events between 1998 and 2003. We propose a competing risks duration model to determine whether observed inequalities in access to permanent employment stem from differences in individual characteristics, in past professional records or in intrinsic state and duration dependencies. We observe that temporary employment leads more often to non-employment than stable job. Transitions to stable employment depend however non-linearly on the time spent in temporary employment. Selection on unobserved individual characteristics appears low for men, but higher for women.