LDC Debt in the 1980s: Risk and Reforms

With the rapid increase in LDC indebtedness in the recent decade, the issues of creditworthiness and country risk have gained new importance. This paper offers a theoretical and historical analysis of international capital markets in the presence of default risk. The theoretical model suggests the possibility of a prisoners' dilemma in the loan market, in which a country's dominant noncooperative strategy is to default, though a welfare-improving cooperative strategy is available. The historical analysis suggests that the IMF may play a key role in guiding creditors and debtor nations to reach cooperative solutions.