Le retour au plein emploi ?
From 1997 to 2001, the French unemployment rate fell by around 4 points. We show it can reach 5 % in 2005 under favorable but realistic assumptions. Lower interest rates could imply a higher investment rate, which would however remain under its level in the 60s. This would allow a 1.1 point fall of the unemployment rate. The external trade could contribute positively to growth and account for a 0.9 point fall of the unemployment rate, despite a slowing down international trade. Working time reduction and a neutral Fiscal Policy are also important assumptions. More over, the NAIRU, estimated at 9 % at least, should fall. We draw alternative scenarios where full employment is reached later because of an less favorable international environment and where the unemployment rate remains over 7 %, because the NAIRU doesn?'t diminish.
Year of publication: |
2001
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Authors: | Chauvin, Valérie ; Dupont, Gaël ; Heyer, Éric ; Timbeau, Xavier |
Published in: |
Revue de l'OFCE. - Presses de Sciences-Po. - Vol. 79.2001, 4, p. 195-233
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Publisher: |
Presses de Sciences-Po |
Saved in:
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