Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc

Given the strong contribution of tourism in the Moroccan economy, we propose in this paper to analyze the determinants of an empirical point of view of international tourism demand addressed to Morocco. To do this, we estimated a vector error correction (VECM) for the period 2000 - 2009 with a quarterly frequency. The results of our estimates show that long-term arrivals at border posts (specifically from France, Spain and Germany) depend positively on income, the accommodation capacity in classified establishments, the exchange rate and negatively on the relative price. Furthermore, our estimates indicate that external shock (especially a terrorist act) will have a significantly negative impact on tourism demand.