Les effets sur la mortalité de quelques maux contemporains : sida, hépatite, alcool et tabac
Nizard Alfred.- The mortality effects of some modern health problems: AIDS, hepatitis, alcohol and tobacco consumption The AIDS epidemic is entering a new phase, characterized by a mortality that is relatively low and, above all, indirect and incompressible, and a growing population living with HIV or AIDS in which the group of individuals contaminated by heterosexual relations now forms the largest element. The decline in the incidence of hepatitis ? and ? and the introduction of effective new treatments suggests that a favourable evolution can be expected in a few years, as has happened for AIDS. Alcohol-related mortality is still falling and in 1997 had not yet been affected by the halt in the fall in alcohol consumption. A modest fall in male smoking-related mortality was observed in 1994, and in 1997, and will continue until 2005 or 2010. By contrast, the rise in female smoking-related mortality seems unstoppable. The increase in female life expectancy is slowing down, and the same may happen for men, due to the interruption in the decline in cardiovascular diseases. Improvements for men are also threatened by the halt in the decline in alcohol consumption (since 1993) and in smoking (since 1998). The decline in alcohol consumption lasted for 24 years, from 1969 to 1992, and that in smoking, mainly concerning men, for 6 years, from 1992 to 1997. At present, the progress in female life expectancy is the most threatened, though a possible recovery in tobacco consumption and the halt in the decline in alcohol consumption, if it continued, could produce a deterioration in the situation of men.
Year of publication: |
2000
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Authors: | Nizard, Alfred |
Published in: |
Population (french edition). - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED). - Vol. 55.2000, 3, p. 503-564
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Publisher: |
Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) |
Saved in:
freely available
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