Les opérations de metallgesellschaft sur les marchés à terme de produits pétroliers : spéculation ou couverture ?

An analysis focusing on the financial aspects is proposed for the strategy initiated by Metallgesellschaft (MG) in 1993-94 on American petroleum markets. According to a specific definition of hedging, and on the basis of a detailed survey of the facts, this strategy is described as speculative. Technically, this deal is considered to be the first attempt to hedge a long term position on the physical markets with short-dated instruments. Arbitrage models derived from the option pricing paradigm allows one to draw the conclusion that this kind of deal is conceivable, but that MG's strategy was deficient. Lastly, a study of the risks indicates that they where probably underestimated.