Levado pelos fundamentos? Estimando o desalinhamento cambial Norte-Americano a partir de técnicas de cointegração

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the United States economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange that guarantees that the net foreign asset position is stable over time. An econometric model is estimated using multivariate and univariate cointegration techniques. The results of the estimated model suggest that American currency was slightly overvalued when compared to weighted basket of foreign currencies at the end of 2010. The misalignment was estimated using the Gonzalo e Granger (1995) methodology to decompose the series in transitory and permanent components.