Liberalization of Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate in India: A VAR Analysis

The East Asian crisis of 1997-98 and the Mexican crisis of 1994 generated much concern among policy analysts regarding the role of macroeconomic policies in the management of capital inflows. A series of economic reform measures including liberalization of foreign capital inflows were initiated in India since the early nineties. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) method, this paper specifically examines if the external shock generated by capital inflows led to appreciation in the real exchange rate as observed in the East Asian and Latin American countries in the 1990’s. [Working Paper No. 351]