Lockdowns as options

I show that the irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic.The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger the more likely vaccine discovery is, and the less uncertainty exists about its effectiveness.

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Year of publication:	2021
Authors:	van Wijnbergen, Sweder J.G.
Publisher:	Amsterdam and Rotterdam : Tinbergen Institute
Subject:	Pandemic Dynamics \| Stochastic Vaccine arrival \| information acquisition \| irreversibility \| lockdowns \| real options

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Series:	Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; TI 2021-037/IV
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	175762211X [GVK] hdl:10419/237770 [Handle] RePEc:tin:wpaper:20210037 [RePEc]
Classification:	G12 - Asset Pricing ; G13 - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing ; G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606003