Long-Run Links Among Money, Prices, and Output: World-Wide Evidence

Regarding inflation as being a monetary phenomenon in the long-run is a widely-held view in modern macro economics. We analyse this topic by means of a P-star model. Based on the quantity theory of money, this approach explains inflation via a supposed equilibrium price level (P-star), which itself depends on potential output and money. We investigate country-specific models for 110 economies, and also a pooled system thereof. We test for cointegration among money, prices, and real output. Moreover, parameter restrictions for the long-run relationships implied by the monetary theory are tested. Country specific P-star variables are constructed and the cointegration property between prices and the P-star variable is analysed. Along these lines, we find that actual prices and their P-star counterparts are cointegrated at the pooled level and thus demonstrate the importance of money for the development of prices.