Long-term Effects of the Targeting the Ultra Poor Program

This paper studies the long-run effects of a "big-push" program providing a large asset transfer to the poorest Indian households. In a randomized controlled trial that follows these households over 10 years, we find positive effects on consumption (1 SD), food security (0.1 SD), income (0.3 SD), and health (0.2 SD). These effects grow for the first seven years following the transfer and persist until year 10, consistent with the alleviation of a poverty trap. One main channel for persistence is that treated households take better advantage of opportunities to diversify into lucrative wage employment, especially through migration