Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU
I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.
Year of publication: |
2010
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Authors: | Afonso, Antonio |
Published in: |
Applied Economics Letters. - Taylor & Francis Journals, ISSN 1350-4851. - Vol. 17.2010, 15, p. 1437-1441
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Publisher: |
Taylor & Francis Journals |
Saved in:
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