Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.