Long term versus warm phase, part I: hurricane frequency analysis

Purpose – By reviewing recent literature, it is noticeable that considerable attention has been given to the relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the USA. However, less research has been done regarding landfall frequency and identifying spatial areas that are statistically more likely to produce landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better prediction method for US landfalling hurricanes. Design/methodology/approach – This work is based on the hypothesis that landfall variations along the US coast can be better explained in terms of hurricane origination points over more susceptible areas on the North Atlantic Ocean. Simulation techniques are used to spatially quantify the landfall probability. Findings – Results indicate the existence of a landfall corridor in the Atlantic Basin, which explains some of the variances observed in the landfall process. Two different hypotheses of climate are examined. A long‐term assumption is based on the historical data from 1940 to 2010. The second assumption is based on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Since 1995, we are in a warm phase and we assume that sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long‐term average over the next several years. Results indicate that the average increase on landfall frequency is about 13 per cent. Originality/value – This paper is the first paper that introduces the concept of landfall origination corridor. It spatially identifies the differences between long term and warm phase of the atmosphere in terms of US landfall occurrence using hurricane origination points.