MACROECONOMIC ESTIMATIONS FOR THE ROMANIAN “PRE-ACCESSION ECONOMIC PROGRAM” (THE 2003 VERSION)

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence of many under performing companies, under use or even complete blockage of other capacities, undercapitalization of a large part of the viable part of the economy, a relatively high burden of taxation. On the demand side, one can mention the contraction of real absorption and limited access to the external markets. The implications of Balassa – Samuelson effect is taken into account. The second and third sections discuss the computational hypothesis and numerical estimations for two scenarios, a desirable and a moderate one, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2003-2007.