MAGNITUDE AND SOURCES OF PRODUCTION VARIABILITY OF MAJOR FOODGRAINS IN BANGLADESH DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1979/80 TO 1998/99

Based on national level data from secondary sources, changes in production variability and their sources of changes for Bangladesh as a whole were measured for major foodgrains- Aus, Aman and Boro rice as well as wheat during 1979/80 to 1998/99 which were again sub-divided between two time periods before full-implementation of privatization policies (1979/80-1988/89) and after fullimplementation of privatization policies (1989/90-1998/99). The results showed that during the period after full-implementation of privatization policies (AFIPP) both the absolute variability (Standard Deviation, SD) and relative variability (coefficient of variation, CV) ipcreased in the cases of Aus rice, Arran rice and wheat production. Absolute variability increased but relative variability decreased in the cases of Boro rice and total foodgrains production. The increase in CV of Aman rice and wheat production is due to increase in both SD and average production of Aman rice and wheat. The increase in relative variability of Aus rice is due to increase in absolute variability and decrease in average production of Aus rice. The decrease in CV of Boro rice and total foodgrains production is attributed to increase in both SD and average production of Boro rice and total goodgrains. The results also showed that in the cases of Aus and Boro rice change in mean area: in the cases of Aman rice and total foodgrains change in mean area variance, and in the case of wheat change in yield variance contributed largely to change in production variance. Inter-regional covariance is the largest contributor to change in production variance of Aus rice, Boro rice, wheat and total foodgrains between the period before and after full implementation of privatization policies. In the case of Aman rice, Rangpur region is the largest contributor to change in production variance.