Market reactions to the reports of a star resource analyst

Keith Goode has for many years been one of Australia’s highest profile mining analysts. He is unique among them, being a commissioned analyst. Goode’s clients—mostly small cap mining companies with limited analyst coverage—pay for a report, which he publishes electronically, but only if his report is positive. Using reports published over eight years from September 2001, we estimate his clients typically benefit by about AUD$14m, or almost 10% of the company’s share market value, with much of the benefit coming almost immediately after the report’s release. Market liquidity surges in the first hour of trading, with the value of trades, flow of buy orders relative to sells, and level of overall activity all increasing significantly. To demonstrate significance, we develop ‘fractile analysis’, a robust, relatively powerful and quite general method for detecting abnormal market activity. Our study is relevant to day traders, analysts and other information intermediaries. The methodological refinement should also interest students of ‘abnormal’ market behaviour.