Maximum Drawdown and the Allocation to Real Estate

We investigate the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio when the maximum drawdown (hereafter MaxDD), rather than the standard deviation, is used as the measure of risk. In particular, we analyse whether the discrepancy between the optimal allocation to real estate and the actual allocation by institutional investors is less when a Return/MaxDD framework is used. The empirical analysis is conducted from the perspective of a Swiss investor using international data for the period 1979-2002. We show that most portfolios optimised in Return/MaxDD space, rather than in Return/Standard Deviation space, yield a much lower MaxDD, while only a slightly higher standard deviation (for the same level of return). The reduction in MaxDD is highest for portfolios situated half-way on the efficient frontier, typically close to those held by pension funds. Also, the reported weights for real estate are much more in line with the actual weights to real estate by institutional investors.