Mean-Reversion Across MENA Stock Markets : Implications for Derivative Pricing

This paper investigates the mean reversion patterns in MENA stock markets. Following Fama and French (1988) and Lo and Mackinlay (1988) and using recent stock market data between 1995 and 2000 on Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey we find evidence of mean reversion in Turkey with mixed results for the remaining MENA stock markets. The paper then introduces a non-parametric model to estimate the reverting mean and speed of reversion. The highest reverting mean is noted for Turkey, followed by Egypt, then Morocco, with Jordan ranking last. Monte Carlo simulations show consistent increases in the volatility of MENA stock returns as the speed of reversion slows. Our results have an important bearing on the pricing of equity derivatives in MENA and are useful for investors employing tactical asset allocation strategies