A measurement of year-on-year variation in the allocations to national departments in South Africa (2003/4–2007/8) from a public management point of view

The Estimates of National Expenditure in South Africa were analysed over a five-year period to determine the extent and nature of budget variation at national level. These estimates are of importance to managers in the public service and to theoreticians in Public Administration and related fields. Changes are analysed organisationally at the level of votes, programmes and sub-programmes, and statistically at the programme level. A problem related to representing changes is solved intuitively. The analyses indicate a stable fiscal environment for managers. The distribution of the changes is skewed positively, with the modal interval of the distribution lying to the left of the zero change point in real terms. Little evidence was found of muddling through. Strategic planning at departmental level is subject to serious constraints. The article briefly discusses various research topics that can be pursued further (for example, transfer payments and statistical work).