Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential

This article describes a method for examining components of structural change in an open economy. A distinguishing characteristic of the method is that changes in external trade behavior are explicitly recognized as a separate component of structural change. The method is utilized to examine the effects of structural change on employment-generating potential in Scotland between 1973 and 1979. Overall, employment generation potential (employment multipliers per unit final demand) fell over the six-year period. Changes in import propensities and employment/output coefficients both led to reductions, but the negative contributions of these components were partially offset by increased use of intermediate inputs. For a number of industries, the changes in employment generation potential and the contributions of the individual components differed substantially from the Scottish average.