Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related night curfews : empirical evidence from Germany

Curfews present the most restrictive measure aiming to fight the spread of the COVID 19-pandemic. A somewhat weaker form are night time curfews. Night time curfews were imposed all over the world (e.g. USA, France, Germany or Argentina) and are still in force in many countries and have been even re-enforced recently in some countries. The public debate around night curfews is heated and evidence on their effectiveness is still scarce so far. Empirical evidence is the only way to reduce the emotionality in this discourse and to provide guidance for the decisions of policymaker. In this paper we estimate the impact of local night curfews in Hesse, the fifth most populous federal state in Germany, on the growth of incidences of COVID-19 cases during the "second wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this setup we take advantage of the fact that counties in Hesse had the same measures in place with the only difference that some additionally had to implement night curfews. This allows us to identify the effect of night curfews in isolation. We find no statistical evidence that night curfews were effective in slowing down the spread of the pandemic.