MERCOSUR-EU trade: The impact of adverse macroeconomic developments and trade barriers on MERCOSUR exports

This article examines sectoral MERCOSUR exports to the EU in the period of 1988 to 1996. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The empirical investigation is based on both a dynamic panel analysis and a rather qualitative evaluation of the extent of tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed by the EU. The ex-post analysis for the period of 1988 to 1996 revealed three things: First, a more competitive real exchange rate could contribute to a better MERCOSUR export performance. Second, EU protection has had in general a very negative impact on MERCOSUR export growth rates. Third, EU protection strongly affected MERCOSUR's largest export sectors.