Merger Control in Italy 1995-2003: A Statistical Study of the Enforcement Practice by Mining the Text of Authority Resolutions

The paper provides a consistency analysis of the decisions taken by the Italian Competition Authority within the 1995-2003 period, concerning its control over mergers and acquisitions. An ample database was constructed using the tools of textual analysis. This data base was generated in a semi-automatic manner and handled with statistical methods, the final aim being the econometric specification - through a logit model - and estimation of the 'de facto' decision model of the Authority, thereby making its principles more transparent and predictable. Model simulation exercises, dependant on multivariate market scenarios, helped estimate the threshold levels triggering Authority intervention.