Mexico Under the Political–transition Cycle : 2018–2020

In this paper we evaluate Mexico’s potential scenario for 2018-2020 period, in which the economy will be immersed in the ups and downs of the business cycle, a traditional pattern determined by the political cycle every six years of change of government. In 2018 the economy will be under the expansionary effects of the political cycle in a year of presidential election. In 2019 the economy will lose strength and decelerate in the first year of the new administration. In the medium term, reforms will increase production capacity and the economy will advance at a slightly higher rates. Few risks remain in the horizon and could still materialize