Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria

We investigate the extent that Nigerian households engage in internal migration to ensure against ex ante and ex post agricultural risk due to weather-related variability and shocks. We use data on the migration patterns of individuals over a twenty-year period and temperature degree days to proxy agricultural risk. We find suggestive evidence of household response to ex ante risk by sending males to migrate. Robust findings show that males migrate in response to ex post risk. As global climate change increases risk, these results suggest that increased migration could result as households mitigate risk and strain limited resources in Nigerian cities. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.