'Mirror Statistics' and Defining Foreign Trade Indicators in the Republic of Azerbaijan

This research was conducted by the experts of Economic Research Centre with the financial support from Open Society Institute-Assistance Foundation within the framework of competition titled “Assistance to analytical centers”. The study report prepared by ERC experts aims at improving the accuracy of the existing statistics by revealing problems with foreign trade statistics in Azerbaijan. With this purpose, the information describing the foreign trade turnover of 16 countries – Azerbaijan's main foreign trade partners - was included in this research. Thus, the database for this research consists of customs statistics of the Republic of Azerbaijan, statistics of State Statistical Committee on the foreign trade, payment balance of Central Bank and official statistics of foreign countries on export-import operations with Azerbaijan. Using the “mirror statistics” methodology, the State Statistical Committee data was compared with the same period information on trade with Azerbaijan received from partner countries.. The calculation model based on this methodology allowed to define the amount of unregistered products imported and exported within a certain period. Trend analysis was conducted by using different comparison methodologies during the research. The research findings indicate the difference in import operations between Azerbaijan and its 16 major trade partner countries in the amount of 10 billion 642 million 900 thousand $ of 2003-2009. According to the “mirror statistics” methodology, difference in the same-period statistical information between countries does not cause any debates when it is below 10 percent. Thus, according to international methodology, import exceeding export by 10% is deemed as normal. However, when import exceeds export by more than 10%, assumptions about other trade barriers and corruption are stipulated. Recommendations are prepared on the basis of these findings, to be further submitted to relevant state agencies. This study can be used by the employees of state agencies, representatives of local and international NGOs, representatives of the diplomatic corps in Azerbaijan, researchers, students and journalists