Modeling Labor Market Behavior of the Population of a Large Industrial City: Duration of Registered Unemployment

This paper analyzes factors affecting the duration of registered unemployment and the intensity of the individuals' transition from unemployment to alternative states. The results will help evaluate the process of the population's adaptation to the government's system of employment assistance in Russia and the effects of this system on the duration of job searchers and the relative chances of employment for various socio-demographic groups of population. We also explore the effect of the legislation governing the timing of obtaining the status of unemployed on the selection of individuals seeking assistance at Public Employment Offices. The empirical modeling is done by using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a competing risk model based on the Cox proportional hazard model.