Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach
System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1517-1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold-Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance.
Year of publication: |
2009
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Authors: | Bonham, Carl ; Gangnes, Byron ; Zhou, Ting |
Published in: |
International Journal of Forecasting. - Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070. - Vol. 25.2009, 3, p. 531-549
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Cointegration Vector error correction model Identification Tourism demand and supply analysis Tourism forecasting Hawaii |
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