Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology
The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.
Year of publication: |
2005-02
|
---|---|
Authors: | Soares, Lacir J. ; Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha |
Institutions: | Departamento de Economia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro |
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