Modelling Demographic Events in the Microsimulation Model DESTINIE

This paper presents a new modelling of demographic events in the microsimulation model Destinie: union formations, union disruptions and births. The previous modelling was based on the 1997 Insee Survey on Young People and Job Histories, whose sample was of limited size (20 000 persons aged 19 to 45). This new version is based on the 1999 Family History Survey whose sample is large enough (280 000 persons aged at least 18) to take into account more covariates than before. In particular we systematically introduce age as a covariate; the age at leaving school, the only variable that represents social heterogeneity in the model Destinie, is also used more systematically than in the previous version. The probabilities are estimated between 1995 and 1999 using logistic regressions. As this period does not necessary correspond to a steady state, we have to adjust the intercepts in the equations so that simulations are consistent with some aggregates. In particular, simulations are consistent with a fertility of 1.9 children per woman, which corresponds to the observed fertility since 2000, and an average age at birth of 30 years. For women, simulations lead to satisfactory results for completed fertility, fertility rate by age and marital status at each age. Thus, the marital status appears to be a valid covariate for modelling transitions on the labour market. Results for men remain less satisfactory.