MODELLING IMPACTS OF SOME EUROPEAN BIOFUEL MEASURES

Against the background of increasing concerns regarding the energy supply security as well as environmental concern the interest for renewable energy sources has increased in recent years. The biofuel sector, backed by public policies, experienced a strong increase in and outside Europe. A methodology that allows for the estimation of the impacts of the fulfilment of the proposed biofuel targets in the EU member states is proposed and implemented in the AGMEMOD model for France and Germany. The so called normative approach, based on the use of a logistic function as biofuel demand function allows to perform simulations to assess the impact of the biofuel demand expansion on agricultural markets. The implemented approach and the simulation results indicate that crops production would adjust to the modified demand situation and depending on the proposed scenario the domestic supply would not be enough for the achievement of the biofuel targets in France and Germany.