Modelling robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change

Agricultural vulnerability is assessed by (i) modelling climate change impacts on crop yields and gross margins, (ii) identifying crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on adaptive capacity. We combine, spatially explicit, a statistical climate change model, the bio-physical process model EPIC and a portfolio optimization model. Under climate change, optimal portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop managements which increase crop yields and gross margins by 2-3%. Abolishment of decoupled but higher agri-environmental payments would reduce nitrogen fertilizer inputs by 23-33%, but also crop yields and gross margins by 18-37%.