Modelling structural-change-related shifts in labour input in the agent-based sector model SWISSland

An empirically-based approach was developed to forecast the use of family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work in the agentbased sector model SWISSland. The forecast was based on a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, a Bayesian network was used to estimate the agents’ most likely labour-adjustment strategies, bearing in mind their production resources. In the second phase, the optimal labour-input strategies were determined in the optimisation process. Since SWISSland is a recursive-dynamic optimisation model, both routines proceeded in annual time steps. A cluster analysis was carried out to determine the most common labour-input strategies in Switzerland. The results of this analysis were used to set up the Bayesian network and parameterise all observed labour-adjustment strategies in the single-farm optimisation model. The cluster results clearly demonstrated the interdependencies among family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work. The optimisation results showed that this method provides detailed forecasts for different labour categories.