Modelling the determinants of spatial differentials in endogenous regional employment growth and decline across regional Australia, 1996-2006

A spatially weighted regression approach is used to model the determinants of spatial differentials in endogenous regional employment growth and decline across nonmetropolitan Local Government Areas in Australia over the decade 1996-2006. The differential or regional component derived from a shift-share analysis of employment change across industry sectors, standardised by size of the regional labour force, is used as the dependent variable. Independent or explanatory variables used n the modelling are surrogate measures – both static and dynamic - relating to a region’s industrial and occupational structure and industry specialisation, population size and growth, human capital characteristics, social capital, creative capital, and a set of locational proxies. Implications of the findings for regional policy are discussed.