Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports
We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolition of the European Union (EU) quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. EU sugar production is simulated to increase from 13.3 to 15.5 million tons in case of quota abolition by 2019/20. Ten member states increase production, nine reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price. , Oxford University Press.
Year of publication: |
2012
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Authors: | Nolte, Stephan ; Buysse, Jeroen ; Huylenbroeck, Guido Van |
Published in: |
European Review of Agricultural Economics. - European Association of Agricultural Economists - EAAE, ISSN 1464-3618. - Vol. 39.2012, 1, p. 75-94
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Publisher: |
European Association of Agricultural Economists - EAAE |
Saved in:
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