Modelling the impact of the recession on greenhouse gases from agriculture in Ireland

The effects of the recession of 2009 have been felt across the economy of Ireland. The rapid contraction in economic activity has had its effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well. It is possible to model the recession’s effect on agricultural GHG in the FAPRI-Ireland GHG model using the latest international commodity price projections from Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). The FAPRI-Ireland GHG model creates projections of future levels of Irish agricultural activity and then uses a mix of national and default emissions factors to convert this activity to estimates of annual GHG emissions from now to 2020. Our model is shocked using post-downturn commodity price projections for a selection of exogenous prices. The changes to these international commodity prices reflect the international market response to the downturn, and as such they have an impact on the level of GHG emitted by the agricultural sector in Ireland. This analysis finds that, despite the depth and breadth of the recession, the impact on GHG emissions from Irish agriculture has been muted. The impact of the shock is to reduce the projected annual emissions from the sector by only 0.14 Mt by 2020. This compares to the 2.97 Mt reduction in annual emissions which the sector would have to achieve if, for example, a reduction target of 20 percent on 2005 levels were to be imposed.