Monetary Policy Design under Imperfect Knowledge : An Open Economy Analysis

Incorporating adaptive learning into an open-economy DSGE model, we examine how monetary policy rules should adjust when agents’ information set deviates from that assumed under the rational expectations paradigm. We find that when agents observe current shocks but don’t know the parameters governing key macroeconomic dynamics, the resulting distortion is small and the preferred policy under rational expectations works well. However, the welfare cost of imperfect knowledge becomes quite severe when agents also have to learn about the structural shocks to the economy. Monetary policy can play a significant role in mitigating distortions associated with this form of imperfect knowledge