Money, output and prices in Turkey

The determination of aggregate output and the price level in Turkey is examined. Empirical results indicate that the Turkish economy behaves consistent with predictions of a simple real business cycle model. Output follows an autoregressive structure with trend. Monetary policy is neutral and the results point to unitary elasticity between money and prices. The findings are generally robust to estimations in levels or first differences, and hold for either the narrow or broad money stock. The results suggest a modelling and policy strategy which may be relevant for other semi-industrialized countries.