Morocco Economic Update : The Recovery is Running Dry

The Moroccan economy staged a strong recovery in 2021. However, Morocco is once again suffering the impact of a string of adverse shocks. The beginning of the agricultural season has been unusually dry, and a poor cereal crop is to be expected for 2022. This coincides with a slowing of the global economy and rising international commodity prices, adverse trends that severely intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ongoing shocks are affecting fiscal and external balances. Albeit somewhat more moderately than in other countries, Morocco is beginning to face intense inflationary pressures. Recent droughts serve as a stark reminder of the exposure of the Moroccan economy to rainfall shocks. Infrastructure development is a necessary but not sufficient condition to cope with water scarcity. Historically, Morocco has relied on massive water storage and irrigation investments to cope with highly variable rainfall patterns. Such investments are more necessary than ever, but international experience suggests that to cope with water scarcity, "engineering solutions" need to be coupled by effective water demand management policies