Natural gas demand and supply modeling with geo‐spatial technologies

Purpose – Natural gas makes up about 50 per cent of Pakistan's energy consumption, which is decreasing at an alarming pace, making Karachi – the largest city of Pakistan – one of the major victims of natural gas shortfall. The purpose of this paper is to model natural gas demand and supply using geographic information systems. Design/methodology/approach – Sui Southern Gas Company datasets were used to derive annual per capita gas usages and to analyze the capacity of gas supplies. Union Council is taken as a smallest and basic analytical administrative spatial unit for appraisal of badly affected, with insufficient, low and better gas supply regions. Findings – Results show that the per capita demand for natural gas is higher in high class residential areas while supply is lowest for upper middle and lower middle class residential area populations. Only 19 per cent of the total residential areas are expected to be free from gas shortfalls. About 53 per cent of residential areas are facing the problem of low gas availability; and 3 per cent and 11 per cent areas are under stress of badly affected and insufficient gas supply, respectively. Originality/value – This research shows an example of constructing a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based gas demand and supply model that can be used for building strategic guidelines for top‐level planners, engineers and decision makers at the micro‐level. This is not a “deep” paper, but it works in identifying a problem and presenting a quantitative way forward. This paper will have significant impact both on society and academia, as this innovative technology and its implementation on gas utility has happened for the first time in Pakistan. Furthermore, in the international literature this has also been in infancy and will open new avenues of research, especially in developing countries. The work would certainly be applicable for other consumer‐based utilities such as electricity, telecommunication, sewerage and municipal water and they would all benefit from it substantially.