Natural Gas Flares Up Over Eastern Mediterranean

The discovery of huge reserves of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean in the last few years are stirring the pot of regional turmoil and provoking various reactions from the other players in the area. It is also opening up new economic opportunities and redefining strategic relationships. The recent hydrocarbon finds are thus catalyzing long-running security issues, rather than creating new ones. It looks as if the region is on the verge of a very volatile and highly complicated situation. The complex nature of the overlapping claims, history of conflict in the region and potential riches available to cash strapped nations, present a long-term security dilemma for regional states and makes it more difficult to resolve the various disputes. Moreover, the gas discoveries are not only changing the energy calculus in the eastern Mediterranean but also creating some new geopolitical developments that could impact on future Russian gas exports to the European Union (EU) and also on Turkey’s strategic goal to be the energy hub for Europe. The paper will argue that potential disputes about gas are largely containable, owing either to an asymmetry of military power between Israel and its neighbours or to membership of NATO or the European Union, which should encourage negotiations rather than confrontation. It will also argue that there may be a need for a UN-sponsored regional conference with the main task of facilitating negotiations, say, between Lebanon and Israel as well as between the Turks and Greek Cypriots. Such international negotiations and arbitration appear necessary to avoid future military conflict. The paper will conclude that the huge gas riches could either exacerbate an already very tense and dangerous situation in the area or could lead to a reduction of tension and mutual benefits to all