Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality?

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: strong near-rational expectations (SNRE) and weak near-rational expectations (WNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model is estimated with the RE, the SNRE and the WNRE. It is estimated with and without observed from the surveys expectations. The quality of out-of-sample forecasts is estimated. It is shown that near-rational concept produce the same advantages as learning without its disadvantages. However, the DSGE model with the RE and the observed expectations with measurement errors can produce results that only slightly worse than with the WNRE. The influence of the observed expectations on the forecasting quality is analyzed.