Negotiating environmental agreements under ratification uncertainty : conference paper

In this paper we analyze how ratification uncertainty impacts the optimal terms of international environmental agreements (IEAs). We relax the frequent assumption of countries as unitary actors by modeling the ratification stage through uncertain preferences of a ratifying agent (e.g. the pivotal voter). With this, we combine the literature on IEAs with the one on two-level games of ratification. We find that ratification uncertainty reduces both the strength of the commitment as well as the participation threshold, thereby affecting intensive as well as extensive margins of expected international cooperation. Similar comparative statics arise under uncertainty when pivotal voters' and negotiators' preferences diverge. This is a first step towards linking individual voters' preferences to the outcome of IEAs.