New estimates of the risk and duration of registered unemployment in urban Russia

Purpose – This paper examines whether deregistration from the employment office decreases unemployment duration in urban Russia. Design/methodology/approach – Econometric methods of transition data analysis/duration modeling were applied to a dataset on unemployed individuals in order to learn whether deregistration from the employment office decreases unemployment duration. Findings – The paper finds that only 29 percent of the unemployed obtained a job simultaneously with deregistering from the Public Employment Office. Others continued to search for job on their own. The predicted risk of getting a job is non‐monotonic and tends to decrease at longer duration intervals. There is a significant excess in job finding rates following employment office deregistration. Research limitations/implications – The paper is based on information from unemployment registry of a single industrial city, which might limit its usefulness elsewhere. Practical implications – The paper identifies groups of individuals who are likely to exit employment office without finding a job. Originality/value – This paper uses results of the first follow‐up survey of unemployed who deregister from employment offices and provides new evidence on the duration of unemployment spell in Russia. Results are particularly useful for individuals who are interested in the design of unemployment insurance system in Russia and its impact on the duration of unemployment spell.