New Evidence on the Value of Public Information in Commodity Markets
The informational value of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971-1992. Three tests of informational content are considered: i) a relative forecast accuracy test, ii) a price reaction test, and iii) a willingness-to-pay test. Overall, the results suggest USDA corn and soybean forecasts provide valuable information to commodity markets. This value, however, does appear to have declined, especially since the mid-1980s. This is consistent with large declines in the cost of information due to technological improvements in computers, communications equipment, remote-sensing satellites, etc
Year of publication: |
[2000]
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Authors: | Garcia, Philip |
Other Persons: | Irwin, Scott H. (contributor) ; Leuthold, Raymond M. (contributor) ; Yang, Li (contributor) |
Publisher: |
[2000]: [S.l.] : SSRN |
Description of contents: | Abstract [papers.ssrn.com] |
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