Nonstationarity of Regressors and Tests on Real-Interest-Rate Behavior.

This paper reexamines tests on the behavior of real interest rates in light of recent results which indicate that regressors are nonstationary and not strictly exogenous. Strong rejections of constancy of real interest rates that have been found previously in the literature are confirmed here. However, although there is some evidence here that real rates are negatively correlated with expected inflation, this result is not as strong as has been indicated by previous research. In addition, results that found a significant negative correlation between real rates and nominal rates before 1979 are not supported here, while there is evidence for a positive correlation of real and nominal interest rates after 1979.