O PAPEL DA OFERTA DE TRABALHO NO COMPORTAMENTO DOS RETORNOS À EDUCAÇÃO NO BRASIL

The proportion of workers with elementary and high school degree has grown very fast during the last two decades. Meanwhile, the proportion of workers with a college degree has stabilized since the early 80's. The college wage premium is growing for workers of all ages, while the elementary and high school wage premium are declining for workers of all ages. The present study estimates a causal relationship from the relative supply of labor into the evolution of the wage gaps. The theoretical model consists of a production function that depends on three labor aggregates: unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled. The estimation follows a two-stage process. In the first one, the elasticities of substitution between age groups are obtained and the second one obtains the elasticities of substitution between skill groups. The paper concludes that the relative demand for semi-skilled work is increasing, but it is being compensating to the increase of the relative supply. The demand for skilled work seems to be constant during the period of the study, which indicates the relative supply totally explains the wage premium.