Olie : hoop of wanhoop vir Angola?

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The increasing global demand for and dependency on oil provides tremendousopportunities for oil-producing countries. Supported by the unprecedentedeconomic growth in developing countries such as China and India, the globaldemand for oil is estimated to increase by 50% from the present 83 millionbarrels a day to 120 million barrels a day by 2025. This increased demand for oilprovides the African oil industry with vast possibilities. Countries such as Angola,Cameroon and Nigeria are already experiencing a large increase in direct foreigninvestment, a higher Gross National Product en more favourable balance oftrade.The logical conclusion from the abovementioned advantages of oil-rich countrieswould seem to imply a sharp rise in the standard of living for the citizens of thesecountries in the recent past. The purpose of this report is to determine if Angola,as the world’s fastest growing oil-producer in terms of increased production ofbarrels per day, offers its citizens an economically prosperous future.Points highlighted by the report include the inevitable problems caused byAngola’s colonial history and the recent twenty seven year long civil war. Angolafaces internal and external problems caused by• “Dutch Disease”• Fluctuating oil prices• Poor governance• Institutional capacityChina now plays an important if somewhat controversial role in Angola’sprosperity by providing finance and aid with less stringent conditions thanAngola’s traditional sources. With Chinese aid Angola is now undertaking therebuilding of its infrastructure which is essential to counteract the negativeaspects of the country’s dependency on oil resource exploitation.There is still significant corruption within the oil industry and it seems clear thatany attempts by international companies and non-governmental organisations tocounteract the problem will have limited success unless the governments and allconcerned parties take note of and accept new ethical and socially responsiblecodes of behaviour.Africa however is entering a new phase of accepting responsibility for its owninternal problems. The democratisation of the continent is setting new standardsfor the fight against corruption.Finally the report indicates that there are lessons to be learned from othercountries about using income from natural resources to benefit futuregenerations. Countries such as Botswana (diamonds) and Norway (oil) useinvestment funds to limit their dependence on the resources and to counteractthe effect of fluctuating prices of the commodities.Bearing in mind the above considerations, Angola cannot be expected to achievesuccess overnight, but the country has all that is required to eventually assume itsrightful position on the continent and become another African economic successstory.