On the dynamic link between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from Romania

The theoretical linkages between exchange rates and stock prices are microeconomic as well as macroeconomic in nature and may be observed on the short- and long-run. The paper examines the interactions between the exchange rates and stock prices in Romania, after 1997, taking into account the change in the monetary regime occurred in 2005 – the shift towards inflation targeting. The analysis uses bivariate cointegration and Granger causality tests, applied on daily and monthly exchange rates and stock prices data collected over the 1999 to 2007 period. Three types of exchange rates are used: the nominal effective exchange rates of the Romanian leu, the bilateral nominal exchange rates of the leu against the US dollar and the euro, and the real effective exchange rates of the leu. In terms of stock prices, the BET and BET-C indices of the Bucharest Stock Exchange are used, denominated in the local currency.